关于技术、政策和社会的独立研究与分析 | Independent research and analysis on technology, policy, and society https://polyprospects.com zh 版权所有 2026 Thu, 16 Apr 2026 02:25:42 GMT 60 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/africa?id=2026-04-15-africa brief-2026-04-15-africa-en 2026-04-15 · Africa · English Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en africa brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/eu?id=2026-04-15-eu brief-2026-04-15-eu-zh 2026-04-15 · 欧盟聚焦 · 中文 Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh eu brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/china?id=2026-04-15-china brief-2026-04-15-china-en 2026-04-15 · China Analysis · English Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en china brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/russia?id=2026-04-15-russia brief-2026-04-15-russia-zh 2026-04-15 · 俄罗斯聚焦 · 中文 Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh russia brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/latam?id=2026-04-15-latam brief-2026-04-15-latam-en 2026-04-15 · Latin America · English Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en latam brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/us?id=2026-04-15-us brief-2026-04-15-us-en 2026-04-15 · United States · English Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en us brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/latam?id=2026-04-15-latam brief-2026-04-15-latam-zh 2026-04-15 · 南美洲聚焦 · 中文 Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh latam brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/china?id=2026-04-15-china brief-2026-04-15-china-zh 2026-04-15 · 中国分析 · 中文 Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh china brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/russia?id=2026-04-15-russia brief-2026-04-15-russia-en 2026-04-15 · Russia · English Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en russia brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/us?id=2026-04-15-us brief-2026-04-15-us-zh 2026-04-15 · 美国聚焦 · 中文 Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh us brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/eu?id=2026-04-15-eu brief-2026-04-15-eu-en 2026-04-15 · European Union · English Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en eu brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/africa?id=2026-04-15-africa brief-2026-04-15-africa-zh 2026-04-15 · 非洲聚焦 · 中文 Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh africa brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/global?id=2026-04-15-global brief-2026-04-15-global-zh 2026-04-15 · 全球综合 · 中文 Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh global brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/sea?id=2026-04-15-sea brief-2026-04-15-sea-zh 2026-04-15 · 东南亚聚焦 · 中文 Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh sea brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/central-asia?id=2026-04-15-central-asia brief-2026-04-15-central-asia-zh 2026-04-15 · 中亚聚焦 · 中文 Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh central-asia brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/middle-east?id=2026-04-15-middle-east brief-2026-04-15-middle-east-zh 2026-04-15 · 中东聚焦 · 中文 Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh middle-east brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/central-asia?id=2026-04-15-central-asia brief-2026-04-15-central-asia-en 2026-04-15 · Central Asia · English Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en central-asia brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/sea?id=2026-04-15-sea brief-2026-04-15-sea-en 2026-04-15 · Southeast Asia · English Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en sea brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/middle-east?id=2026-04-15-middle-east brief-2026-04-15-middle-east-en 2026-04-15 · Middle East · English Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en middle-east brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/global?id=2026-04-15-global brief-2026-04-15-global-en 2026-04-15 · Global · English Wed, 15 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en global brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/africa?id=2026-04-14-africa brief-2026-04-14-africa-en 2026-04-14 · Africa · English Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en africa brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/eu?id=2026-04-14-eu brief-2026-04-14-eu-zh 2026-04-14 · 欧盟聚焦 · 中文 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh eu brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/china?id=2026-04-14-china brief-2026-04-14-china-en 2026-04-14 · China Analysis · English Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en china brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/russia?id=2026-04-14-russia brief-2026-04-14-russia-zh 2026-04-14 · 俄罗斯聚焦 · 中文 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh russia brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/latam?id=2026-04-14-latam brief-2026-04-14-latam-en 2026-04-14 · Latin America · English Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en latam brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/us?id=2026-04-14-us brief-2026-04-14-us-en 2026-04-14 · United States · English Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en us brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/latam?id=2026-04-14-latam brief-2026-04-14-latam-zh 2026-04-14 · 南美洲聚焦 · 中文 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh latam brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/china?id=2026-04-14-china brief-2026-04-14-china-zh 2026-04-14 · 中国分析 · 中文 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh china brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/russia?id=2026-04-14-russia brief-2026-04-14-russia-en 2026-04-14 · Russia · English Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en russia brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/us?id=2026-04-14-us brief-2026-04-14-us-zh 2026-04-14 · 美国聚焦 · 中文 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh us brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/eu?id=2026-04-14-eu brief-2026-04-14-eu-en 2026-04-14 · European Union · English Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en eu brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/africa?id=2026-04-14-africa brief-2026-04-14-africa-zh 2026-04-14 · 非洲聚焦 · 中文 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh africa brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/sea?id=2026-04-14-sea brief-2026-04-14-sea-zh 2026-04-14 · 东南亚聚焦 · 中文 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh sea brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/central-asia?id=2026-04-14-central-asia brief-2026-04-14-central-asia-zh 2026-04-14 · 中亚聚焦 · 中文 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh central-asia brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/middle-east?id=2026-04-14-middle-east brief-2026-04-14-middle-east-zh 2026-04-14 · 中东聚焦 · 中文 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh middle-east brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/central-asia?id=2026-04-14-central-asia brief-2026-04-14-central-asia-en 2026-04-14 · Central Asia · English Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en central-asia brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/sea?id=2026-04-14-sea brief-2026-04-14-sea-en 2026-04-14 · Southeast Asia · English Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en sea brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/middle-east?id=2026-04-14-middle-east brief-2026-04-14-middle-east-en 2026-04-14 · Middle East · English Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en middle-east brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/global?id=2026-04-14-global brief-2026-04-14-global-en 2026-04-14 · Global · English Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en global brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/global?id=2026-04-14-global brief-2026-04-14-global-zh 2026-04-14 · 全球综合 · 中文 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh global brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/eu?id=2026-04-13-eu brief-2026-04-13-eu-zh 2026-04-13 · 欧盟聚焦 · 中文 Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh eu brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/china?id=2026-04-13-china brief-2026-04-13-china-en 2026-04-13 · China Analysis · English Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en china brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/russia?id=2026-04-13-russia brief-2026-04-13-russia-zh 2026-04-13 · 俄罗斯聚焦 · 中文 Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh russia brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/latam?id=2026-04-13-latam brief-2026-04-13-latam-en 2026-04-13 · Latin America · English Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en latam brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/us?id=2026-04-13-us brief-2026-04-13-us-en 2026-04-13 · United States · English Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en us brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/latam?id=2026-04-13-latam brief-2026-04-13-latam-zh 2026-04-13 · 南美洲聚焦 · 中文 Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh latam brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/china?id=2026-04-13-china brief-2026-04-13-china-zh 2026-04-13 · 中国分析 · 中文 Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh china brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/russia?id=2026-04-13-russia brief-2026-04-13-russia-en 2026-04-13 · Russia · English Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en russia brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/us?id=2026-04-13-us brief-2026-04-13-us-zh 2026-04-13 · 美国聚焦 · 中文 Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh us brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/eu?id=2026-04-13-eu brief-2026-04-13-eu-en 2026-04-13 · European Union · English Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en eu brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/global?id=2026-04-13-global brief-2026-04-13-global-zh 2026-04-13 · 全球综合 · 中文 Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh global brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/sea?id=2026-04-13-sea brief-2026-04-13-sea-zh 2026-04-13 · 东南亚聚焦 · 中文 Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh sea brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/central-asia?id=2026-04-13-central-asia brief-2026-04-13-central-asia-zh 2026-04-13 · 中亚聚焦 · 中文 Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh central-asia brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/middle-east?id=2026-04-13-middle-east brief-2026-04-13-middle-east-zh 2026-04-13 · 中东聚焦 · 中文 Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh middle-east brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/central-asia?id=2026-04-13-central-asia brief-2026-04-13-central-asia-en 2026-04-13 · Central Asia · English Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en central-asia brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/sea?id=2026-04-13-sea brief-2026-04-13-sea-en 2026-04-13 · Southeast Asia · English Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en sea brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/middle-east?id=2026-04-13-middle-east brief-2026-04-13-middle-east-en 2026-04-13 · Middle East · English Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en middle-east brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/global?id=2026-04-13-global brief-2026-04-13-global-en 2026-04-13 · Global · English Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en global brief English https://polyprospects.com/columns/us-politics-china?id=us-followup-20260413-037948 column-us-followup-20260413-037948-zh Followup draft generated from watchpoint: 301调查公众评论截止监控 Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh 专栏 中文 https://polyprospects.com/columns/us-politics-china?id=us-followup-20260413-037948 column-us-followup-20260413-037948-en Monitoring the deadline for public comments on the Section 301 investigation into Chinese structural excess capacity. Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en Column English https://polyprospects.com/columns/us-politics-china?id=article-20260413-468148 column-article-20260413-468148-zh 专栏稿：当"过剩产能"成为301调查的新靶心 Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh 专栏 中文 https://polyprospects.com/columns/us-politics-china?id=article-20260413-468148 column-article-20260413-468148-en Research article on: 专栏稿：当"过剩产能"成为301调查的新靶心 Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en Column English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/africa?id=2026-04-12-africa brief-2026-04-12-africa-en 2026-04-12 · Africa · English Sun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en africa brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/eu?id=2026-04-12-eu brief-2026-04-12-eu-zh 2026-04-12 · 欧盟聚焦 · 中文 Sun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh eu brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/china?id=2026-04-12-china brief-2026-04-12-china-en 2026-04-12 · China Analysis · English Sun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en china brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/russia?id=2026-04-12-russia brief-2026-04-12-russia-zh 2026-04-12 · 俄罗斯聚焦 · 中文 Sun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh russia brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/latam?id=2026-04-12-latam brief-2026-04-12-latam-en 2026-04-12 · Latin America · English Sun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en latam brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/us?id=2026-04-12-us brief-2026-04-12-us-en 2026-04-12 · United States · English Sun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en us brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/latam?id=2026-04-12-latam brief-2026-04-12-latam-zh 2026-04-12 · 南美洲聚焦 · 中文 Sun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh latam brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/china?id=2026-04-12-china brief-2026-04-12-china-zh 2026-04-12 · 中国分析 · 中文 Sun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh china brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/russia?id=2026-04-12-russia brief-2026-04-12-russia-en 2026-04-12 · Russia · English Sun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en russia brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/us?id=2026-04-12-us brief-2026-04-12-us-zh 2026-04-12 · 美国聚焦 · 中文 Sun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh us brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/eu?id=2026-04-12-eu brief-2026-04-12-eu-en 2026-04-12 · European Union · English Sun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en eu brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/africa?id=2026-04-12-africa brief-2026-04-12-africa-zh 2026-04-12 · 非洲聚焦 · 中文 Sun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh africa brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/global?id=2026-04-12-global brief-2026-04-12-global-zh 2026-04-12 · 全球综合 · 中文 Sun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh global brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/sea?id=2026-04-12-sea brief-2026-04-12-sea-zh 2026-04-12 · 东南亚聚焦 · 中文 Sun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh sea brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/central-asia?id=2026-04-12-central-asia brief-2026-04-12-central-asia-zh 2026-04-12 · 中亚聚焦 · 中文 Sun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh central-asia brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/articles/us-grand-strategy-debate-2017 article-us-grand-strategy-debate-2017-zh 从「美国优先」到「中产阶级外交」——自由霸权秩序的终结与美国战略重塑的结构性根源。基于多维度分析框架，系统梳理三大战略阵营（民族主义、改革派、现实主义）的竞争格局、未解困境与未来情景。 Sat, 11 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh 地缘战略 中文 https://polyprospects.com/articles/us-grand-strategy-debate-2017 article-us-grand-strategy-debate-2017-en From 'America First' to 'Middle-Class Foreign Policy' — the structural origins of the liberal hegemonic order's collapse and the three competing strategic camps shaping US foreign policy. Sat, 11 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en Geostrategy English https://polyprospects.com/articles/eu-cbam-geoeconomic-2026-04-10 article-eu-cbam-geoeconomic-2026-04-10-zh 欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）已进入全面实施阶段。本报告从法律架构、数据暴露、政治经济和历史比较四个维度，评估CBAM对全球价值链、碳成本传导和地缘经济格局的深层影响，并提出基准、乐观、悲观与意外四种情景的概率评估。 Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh 经济政策 中文 https://polyprospects.com/articles/eu-cbam-geoeconomic-2026-04-10 article-eu-cbam-geoeconomic-2026-04-10-en The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has entered full implementation. This report assesses its geoeconomic implications for global value chains, carbon cost pass-through, and trade-coalition dynamics across legal, data, political-economy, and comparative lenses, with probability-weighted scenarios through 2035. Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en Economic Policy English https://polyprospects.com/columns/us-politics-china?id=us-column-20260410-360093 column-us-column-20260410-360093-zh 美国通信网络新规要求外国敌对方（foreign adversary）控制下的企业披露信息，将增加出海合规成本，同时催生替代方案需求。真正需要追问的，不是美国又出了哪条消息，而是这件事会不会先进入合规成本、市场准入和业务布局。选举周期与技术管制同步推进，政策从舆论信号转为正式规则执行阶段。 Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh 专栏 中文 https://polyprospects.com/columns/us-politics-china?id=us-column-20260410-360093 column-us-column-20260410-360093-en New US telecom rules requiring disclosure from companies controlled by 'foreign adversaries' will increase compliance costs and create demand for alternatives. The real question is not what new regulation the US has introduced, but how this impacts compliance costs, market access, and business strategy. As election cycles coincide with tech regulation, policies are shifting from public discourse to formal implementation. Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en Column English https://polyprospects.com/columns/us-politics-china?id=us-column-20260410-616730 column-us-column-20260410-616730-zh 短期，食品加工和出口相关板块将承压，尤其是对美出口依赖度高的企业，股价可能先反应政策预期。中期，看企业供应链调整速度，若加速向东南亚转移，可能带动相关区域投资机会，但整体盈利能力将受压。 Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh 专栏 中文 https://polyprospects.com/columns/us-politics-china?id=us-column-20260410-616730 column-us-column-20260410-616730-en In the short term, food processing and export-related sectors will face pressure, especially companies highly dependent on US exports, whose stock prices may react first to policy expectations. In the medium term, the pace of supply chain adjustments will be key. If companies accelerate shifts to Southeast Asia, it could create investment opportunities in those regions, but overall profitability will be under pressure. Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en Column English https://polyprospects.com/columns/us-politics-china?id=us-column-20260410-149243 column-us-column-20260410-149243-zh 短期，先表现为科技股风险偏好下降，但自主可控与国产替代方向可能逆势走强。中期，限制是否扩大，以及国产替代和订单转移能否形成真实收入支撑。 Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh 专栏 中文 https://polyprospects.com/columns/us-politics-china?id=us-column-20260410-149243 column-us-column-20260410-149243-en Short-term, this will initially manifest as decreased risk appetite for tech stocks, but domestically controlled and domestic substitution sectors may strengthen against the trend. Medium-term, the key questions are whether restrictions will expand, and whether domestic substitution and order transfers can form genuine revenue support. Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en Column English https://polyprospects.com/columns/us-politics-china?id=us-column-20260410-851994 column-us-column-20260410-851994-zh 《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（GENIUS Act）提案对稳定币发行和存款保险规则调整，将直接影响跨境资本流动和创业环境。真正需要追问的，不是美国又出了哪条消息，而是这件事会不会先进入融资逻辑、行业门槛和资本流动。选举周期临近，监管机构加速推进数字资产框架，为下一届政府政策定调，同时填补现有监管空白。 Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh 专栏 中文 https://polyprospects.com/columns/us-politics-china?id=us-column-20260410-851994 column-us-column-20260410-851994-en The proposed 'Guiding and Establishing National Innovative US Stablecoin Act' (GENIUS Act) adjustments to stablecoin issuance and deposit insurance rules will directly impact cross-border capital flows and entrepreneurial environments. Rather than focusing on each new US development, the key question is how this will affect financing logic, industry barriers, and capital movement. With an election cycle approaching, regulators are accelerating the digital asset framework to shape the next administration's policies while addressing current regulatory gaps. Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en Column English https://polyprospects.com/columns/us-politics-china?id=us-column-20260408-539660 column-us-column-20260408-539660-zh 预算削减政策可能影响美国各领域资源分配，间接影响中国学生、职业人士和出海企业的决策环境。真正需要追问的，不是美国又出了哪条消息，而是这件事会不会先进入就业机会、岗位分布和行业判断。预算政策正处于选举周期和国会推进的关键阶段，可能从行政令转为正式执行规则。 Wed, 08 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh 专栏 中文 https://polyprospects.com/columns/us-politics-china?id=us-column-20260408-539660 column-us-column-20260408-539660-en Budget cuts in the US may affect resource allocation across sectors, indirectly influencing the decision-making environment for Chinese students, professionals, and companies expanding overseas. Rather than focusing on specific policy announcements, the key question is how these changes will impact employment opportunities, job distribution, and industry analysis. As budget policies advance through the election cycle and congressional processes, they may transition from executive orders to formal implementation rules. Wed, 08 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en Column English https://polyprospects.com/columns/us-politics-china?id=us-column-20260408-522599 column-us-column-20260408-522599-zh 短期，先影响港股和中概股的监管预期，A股更多体现为主题交易。中期，监管框架是否稳定下来，以及资金、支付和平台公司能否适应新合规门槛。 Wed, 08 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh 专栏 中文 https://polyprospects.com/columns/us-politics-china?id=us-column-20260408-522599 column-us-column-20260408-522599-en In the short term, regulatory expectations will primarily affect HK and Chinese concept stocks, while A-shares will be more driven by thematic trading. Medium-term, the stability of the regulatory framework and the adaptability of capital, payment, and platform companies to new compliance thresholds will be key. Wed, 08 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en Column English https://polyprospects.com/articles/us-midterm-retirements-2026 article-us-midterm-retirements-2026-zh 68名现任国会议员已宣布不寻求连任，创下近百年来最高纪录。共和党众议员退休人数（36人）创下近一个世纪峰值，而中期重划将真正竞争性的众议院席位压缩至仅剩18个。本报告从法律、数据与政治经济三维度，评估这场退休潮对2026年中期选举权力格局的深层影响。 Mon, 06 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh 美国政治 中文 https://polyprospects.com/articles/us-midterm-retirements-2026 article-us-midterm-retirements-2026-en A record 68 incumbent members of Congress have announced they will not seek reelection, with Republican House retirements (36) reaching a century high. Mid-decade redistricting has compressed truly competitive House seats to just 18. This report assesses the structural implications of the 2026 retirement wave for congressional power dynamics. Mon, 06 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en U.S. Politics English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/us?id=2026-04-06-us brief-2026-04-06-us-en 2026-04-06 · United States · English Mon, 06 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en us brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/us?id=2026-04-06-us brief-2026-04-06-us-zh 2026-04-06 · 美国聚焦 · 中文 Mon, 06 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh us brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/eu?id=2026-04-06-eu brief-2026-04-06-eu-en 2026-04-06 · European Union · English Mon, 06 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en eu brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/global?id=2026-04-06-global brief-2026-04-06-global-zh 2026-04-06 · 全球综合 · 中文 Mon, 06 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh global brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/global?id=2026-04-06-global brief-2026-04-06-global-en 2026-04-06 · Global · English Mon, 06 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en global brief English https://polyprospects.com/articles/chinese-ebike-europe-2026 article-chinese-ebike-europe-2026-zh 当中国制造占据欧洲电助力自行车供应链的半壁江山，为何中国品牌的市场占有率却不足15%？本文从法律、数据与制度激励三个维度，拆解欧洲政治运作如何为后来者设置层层筛选机制。 Sat, 04 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh 经济政策 中文 https://polyprospects.com/articles/chinese-ebike-europe-2026 article-chinese-ebike-europe-2026-en Chinese manufacturing dominates the European e-bike supply chain, yet Chinese brands hold less than 15% market share. This report unpacks the legal, technical, and institutional mechanisms that separate production access from brand access in the world's largest e-bike market. Sat, 04 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en Economic Policy English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/africa?id=2026-04-04-africa brief-2026-04-04-africa-en 2026-04-04 · Africa · English Sat, 04 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en africa brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/eu?id=2026-04-04-eu brief-2026-04-04-eu-zh 2026-04-04 · 欧盟聚焦 · 中文 Sat, 04 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh eu brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/us?id=2026-04-04-us brief-2026-04-04-us-en 2026-04-04 · United States · English Sat, 04 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en us brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/us?id=2026-04-04-us brief-2026-04-04-us-zh 2026-04-04 · 美国聚焦 · 中文 Sat, 04 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh us brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/eu?id=2026-04-04-eu brief-2026-04-04-eu-en 2026-04-04 · European Union · English Sat, 04 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en eu brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/global?id=2026-04-04-global brief-2026-04-04-global-zh 2026-04-04 · 全球综合 · 中文 Sat, 04 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh global brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/sea?id=2026-04-04-sea brief-2026-04-04-sea-zh 2026-04-04 · 东南亚聚焦 · 中文 Sat, 04 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh sea brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/global?id=2026-04-04-global brief-2026-04-04-global-en 2026-04-04 · Global · English Sat, 04 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en global brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/russia?id=2026-04-03-russia brief-2026-04-03-russia-en 2026-04-03 · Russia · English Fri, 03 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en russia brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/us?id=2026-04-03-us brief-2026-04-03-us-zh 2026-04-03 · 美国聚焦 · 中文 Fri, 03 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh us brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/africa?id=2026-04-03-africa brief-2026-04-03-africa-zh 2026-04-03 · 非洲聚焦 · 中文 Fri, 03 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh africa brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/global?id=2026-04-03-global brief-2026-04-03-global-zh 2026-04-03 · 全球综合 · 中文 Fri, 03 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh global brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/sea?id=2026-04-03-sea brief-2026-04-03-sea-en 2026-04-03 · Southeast Asia · English Fri, 03 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en sea brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/global?id=2026-04-03-global brief-2026-04-03-global-en 2026-04-03 · Global · English Fri, 03 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en global brief English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/us?id=2026-04-02-us brief-2026-04-02-us-zh 2026-04-02 · 美国聚焦 · 中文 Thu, 02 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh us brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/africa?id=2026-04-02-africa brief-2026-04-02-africa-zh 2026-04-02 · 非洲聚焦 · 中文 Thu, 02 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh africa brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/global?id=2026-04-02-global brief-2026-04-02-global-zh 2026-04-02 · 全球综合 · 中文 Thu, 02 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh global brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/middle-east?id=2026-04-02-middle-east brief-2026-04-02-middle-east-zh 2026-04-02 · 中东聚焦 · 中文 Thu, 02 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh middle-east brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/global?id=2026-04-02-global brief-2026-04-02-global-en 2026-04-02 · Global · English Thu, 02 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en global brief English https://polyprospects.com/articles/trump-birthright-eo-2026-04-01 article-trump-birthright-eo-2026-04-01-zh 2026年4月1日最高法院在Trump v. Barbara案的口头辩论揭示了决定性新信号——4位保守派大法官对政府论证表达明确怀疑，与Thomas-Alito形成4:2分裂。支持EO概率从25-35%下调至15-25%，政府某种程度败诉概率达75-95%。 Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh 美国政策 中文 https://polyprospects.com/articles/trump-birthright-eo-2026-04-01 article-trump-birthright-eo-2026-04-01-en The April 1, 2026 Supreme Court oral arguments in Trump v. Barbara revealed decisive new signals—four conservative justices expressed explicit skepticism toward the government's arguments, forming a 4:2 split with Thomas-Alito. EO support probability revised downward from 25-35% to 15-25%, with government defeat probability reaching 75-95%. Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT en U.S. Policy English https://polyprospects.com/briefs/global?id=2026-04-01-global brief-2026-04-01-global-zh 2026-04-01 · 全球综合 · 中文 Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh global brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/eu?id=2026-04-01-eu brief-2026-04-01-eu-zh 2026-04-01 · 欧盟聚焦 · 中文 Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh eu brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/briefs/us?id=2026-04-01-us brief-2026-04-01-us-zh 2026-04-01 · 美国聚焦 · 中文 Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh us brief 中文 https://polyprospects.com/articles/trump-birthright-eo-2026-03-28 article-trump-birthright-eo-2026-03-28-zh EO 14160试图通过行政令重新解释第十四修正案，在美国领土上制造历史上首次"双轨公民权"——2026年4月1日最高法院口头辩论将开启125年来最重大的宪法裁决。本报告评估三种裁决情景及其对少数族裔、经济结构与政治格局的深层影响。 Sat, 28 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT zh 美国政策 中文 https://polyprospects.com/articles/trump-birthright-eo-2026-03-28 article-trump-birthright-eo-2026-03-28-en EO 14160 attempts to reinterpret the Fourteenth Amendment by executive action, creating the first-ever dual-track citizenship regime on US soil. With Supreme Court oral arguments scheduled for April 1, 2026, the nation faces its most consequential citizenship ruling in 125 years. This report assesses three ruling scenarios and their structural implications for minority communities, economic order, and constitutional governance. Sat, 28 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT en U.S. Policy English